LONDON, (Reuters) - More than 100 million people will die and
the global economy will miss out on as much as 3.2 percent of its
potential output annually by 2030 if the world fails to tackle climate
change, a report commissioned by 20 governments said on Wednesday.
As
global average temperatures rise due to greenhouse gas emissions, the
effects on the planet, such as melting ice caps, extreme weather,
drought and rising sea levels, will threaten populations and
livelihoods, said the report conducted by humanitarian organisation
DARA.
It calculated that five million deaths
occur each year from air pollution, hunger and disease as a result of
climate change and carbon-intensive economies, and that toll would
likely rise to six million a year by 2030 if current patterns of fossil
fuel use continue.
More than 90 percent of
those deaths will occur in developing countries, said the report that
calculated the human and economic impact of climate change on 184
countries in 2010 and 2030. It was commissioned by the Climate
Vulnerable Forum, a partnership of 20 developing countries threatened
by climate change.
"A combined climate-carbon
crisis is estimated to claim 100 million lives between now and the end
of the next decade," the report said.
It said
the effects of climate change was already costing the global economy a
potential 1.6 percent of annual output or about $1.2 trillion a year,
and this could double to 3.2 percent by 2030 if global temperatures are
allowed to rise.
COUNTING THE COST
Responding to the report, Oxfam International said the costs of political inaction on climate were "staggering".
"The
losses to agriculture and fisheries alone could amount to more than
$500 billion per year by 2030, heavily focussed in the poorest
countries where millions depend on these sectors to make a living,"
said executive director Jeremy Hobbs.
British
economist Nicholas Stern told Reuters earlier this year investment
equivalent to 2 percent of global GDP was needed to limit, prevent and
adapt to climate change.
His report on the
economics of climate change in 2006 said that without any action to
tackle climate change, the overall costs and risks of climate change
would be equivalent to a cut in per-capita consumption of perhaps up to
20 percent.
Temperatures have already risen by
about 0.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times. Almost 200
nations agreed in 2010 to limit the global average temperature rise to
below 2C (3.6 Fahrenheit) to avoid dangerous impacts from climate
change.
But climate scientists have warned that
the chance of limiting the rise to below 2C is getting smaller as
global greenhouse gas emissions rise due to burning fossil fuels.
The
world's poorest nations are the most vulnerable as they face increased
risk of drought, water shortages, crop failure, poverty and disease.
On average, they could see an 11 percent loss in GDP by 2030 due to
climate change, DARA said.
"One degree Celsius
rise in temperature is associated with 10 percent productivity loss in
farming. For us, it means losing about 4 million metric tonnes of food
grain, amounting to about $2.5 billion. That is about 2 percent of our
GDP," Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina said in response to the
report.
"Adding up the damages to property and other losses, we are faced with a total loss of about 3-4 percent of GDP."
Even
the biggest and most rapidly developing economies will not escape
unscathed. The United States and China could see a 2.1 percent
reduction in their potential GDPs by 2030, while India could experience
a more than 5 percent loss of potential output.
The full report is available at: http://daraint.org/ (Editing by Janet Lawrence/Jeremy Gaunt)